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ADAM TOOZE

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Historian - Author - Critic - Blogger

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Sep 8, 2023
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  1. Ones & Tooze: The Economic Philosophy of George Soros
    Sep 8, 2023 · original
    Billionaire George Soros has been funding democracy promotion around the world for decades, through his Open Society Foundation. For his efforts, he’s become a bogeyman for the far right. But what economic philosophies drive Soros’s charity work? And how do they align with the business strategies that made him so fabulously wealthy? Adam and Cameron dig in. Find more episodes and subscribe at Foreign Policy .
  2. Chartbook 238: Making & remaking the most important market in the world. Or why everyone should read Menand and Younger on Treasuries.
    Sep 8, 2023 · original
    “The market for U.S. government debt (Treasuries) forms the bedrock of the global financial system. The ability of investors to sell Treasuries quickly, cheaply, and at scale has led to an assumption, in many places enshrined in law, that Treasuries are nearly equivalent to cash. Yet in recent years Treasury market liquidity has evaporated on several occasions and, in 2020, the market’s near collapse led to the most aggressive central bank intervention in history. … a high degree of convertibility between Treasuries and cash generally requires intermediaries that can augment the money supply, absorbing sales by expanding their balance sheets on both sides. The historical depth of the Treasury market was in large part the result of a concerted effort by policymakers to nurture and support such balance sheet capacity at a collection of non bankbroker-dealers. In 2008, the ability of these
  3. Chartbook 237: Whither China? (4): Zero-Covid myths, dynamic clearing & the Omicron crisis of 2022
    Sep 3, 2023 · original
    Politicized memory plays strange tricks. To listen to influential Western voices in 2023 you might imagine that China emerged in December 2022 from long confinement in a zero-COVID prison, a regime dictated by the vanity of Xi Jinping, a regime which inflicted years of comprehensive and repressive lockdowns on a hapless population and revealed the threat posed by the unfettered power of the CCP. This is how Adam Posen begins his much-discussed Foreign Affairs article: After three years of stringent restrictions on movement, mandatory mass testing, and interminable lockdowns, the Chinese government had suddenly decided to abandon its “zero COVID” policy, which had suppressed demand, hampered manufacturing, roiled supply lines, and produced the most significant slowdown that the country’s economy had seen since pro-market reforms began in the late 1970s. Source: Foreign Affairs Listening t
  4. Ones & Tooze: The Pencil as Economic Metaphor
    Sep 1, 2023 · original
    Adam and Cameron discuss the common pencil—both a must-have back-to-school item and a metaphor for the free-market economy. Also on the show: The economics of Mongolia. Find more episodes and subscribe at Foreign Policy .
  5. Book Review: Joe Biden’s First Term and the ‘West Wing’ Fantasy of American Politics
    Aug 31, 2023 · original
    In “The Last Politician,” Franklin Foer presents the first half of Biden’s presidency as a series of made-for-television moments meant to inspire doubters and assuage critics. How will the history of the Biden administration be written: as the turning point when America began to heal or as a hiatus between moments of deadlock and adversity? Franklin Foer’s “The Last Politician,” an account of Biden’s first two years in office, is the first draft of an answer. It has the makings of high drama. Crisis follows crisis. The problem is that, from Biden’s bleak inauguration to the surprise result of the midterms, we know the story in advance. Read the full review at The New York Times
  6. Chartbook 236: Russia’s Long-War Economy
    Aug 30, 2023 · original
    Is Russia’s war economy on the brink of crisis, or settling into a new “long-war” mode? Subscribed With the ruble having fallen to new lows and fear of inflation stalking the headlines, the Russian economy, in the 18 month of its war in Ukraine, is under pressure. For many Russians to see their currency plunging through the threshold of 100 roubles to the dollar came as a rude psychological shock. Source: Trading Economics Valdimir Solovyov, one of Russia’s best-known state TV presenters, bemoaned the situation: “What is happening in this country!? How did this exchange rate come about? Eventually, this will lead to a rise in consumer prices, and it will coincide with the election campaign,”. Cameron Abadi and I took on the topic on the podcast . Check it out: The shock at the sudden depreciation has exposed fault lines within the regime. Old rivals such as Putin’s chief economic advisor
  7. The west has failed to keep its promises on aid
    Aug 28, 2023 · original
    US and EU attempts to respond to China’s Belt and Road Initiative have fallen dismally short Read the full article at The Financial Times
  8. Chartbook 235: Who is driving Germany’s far-right poll surge?
    Aug 26, 2023 · original
    Europe’s centrist political class is looking anxiously towards elections for the European Parliament in 2024. What they fear is a “lurch” to the far-right. In Germany the AfD has surged to joint second place with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD in the polls. At 19 percent the AfD’s support is roughly twice what it was at the time of the last Bundestag election in September 2021. Does this reflect a right-ward shift in German public opinion? Or, is a tactical reaction by German voters who are signaling their dissatisfaction with particular policies? If so, what is most on their minds. An interesting poll by Instituts für Demoskopie Allensbach commissioned by the FAZ and summarized by Thomas Petersen gives some answers. The short answer is that there is no evidence for a strong right-ward shift in German public opinion over the last few years. To establish this fact Allensbach uses a general
  9. Ones & Tooze: A Tale of Two Economies
    Aug 25, 2023 · original
    Economic growth in Japan is surging while the U.K. continues its long slump. Adam and Cameron explain what’s driving the trends in each country. Find more episodes and subscribe at Foreign Policy .
  10. Chartbook 234: Whither China? Part III: Policy hubris and the end of infallibility
    Aug 20, 2023 · original
    China’s economy is in trouble because its authoritarian demons are catching up with it and paralyzing the private sector. China’s economy is in trouble because its growth model exhausted itself and entrenched power structures make it hard to shift gear. The distinction between the “authoritarian impasse” and “structural Keynesian” interpretations of China’s economic situation is clear enough. Both are very powerful explanations rooted in well-established social scientific models – institutional economics and Keynesian macro, respectively. The “authoritarian impasse” model focuses on property rights and the supposed inevitability that at some point an authoritarian regime will succumb to the temptation to abuse them unleashing a downward spiral into a condition Posen compares to that of Russia, Turkey or Venezuela. In Pettis’s model, based on macroeconomic flows – investment, consumption,

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