Antony Green's Election Blog

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Preference Flows at the Secret Harbour By-Election
Sep 4, 2026 · original
Update after full distribution of preferences published: The Liberal Party polled 4,777 votes. During the distribution of preferences, its tally rose to 6,018 votes. When excluded, 3,549 votes transferred to One Nation. That means it is mathematically impossible for Liberal preferences to flow to One Nation at a rate higher than 74.3%. (3549/4777). My original estimate based on flow data counted out for the Early Voting Centre was that 70.2% of Liberal preferences flowed to One Nation. While I cannot update that number from the distribution of preferences, the lower Liberal vote on polling day suggests to me the % flow of Liberal preferences to One Nation is under 70%. A quick break from my holiday to deal with some nonsense claims made about preference flows at the Secret Harbour by-election. In this YouTube video, Topher Field uses some weird maths to come to the conclusion that the Se
Break in Transmission
Aug 28, 2026 · original
A quick post to let everyone know that I won’t be doing much posting on politics through September. That includes there being no coverage of the Secret Harbour (WA) by-election on 29 August. I’m currently in Bled, Slovenia, where I’m heading off on my latest European cycling holiday. More detail inside the post for those interested. If I have the energy I might do the odd post on the trip here, but more likely I’ll post pictures on X. Tomorrow I meet up with my touring group and cycle off to Ljubljana where I’ve just spent two days sight seeing, From there its riding with a bit of island hopping down the coast of Croatia to Dubrovnik to end the first leg of the trip. It’s too dangerous to ride the road south of Dubrovnik so we are bused to the next leg starting in Kotor, Montenegro. I’m really looking forward to Kotor and its magnificent Bay and ancient churches. From there it’s south in
One Nation and its Elected MPs
Aug 18, 2026 · original
Since One Nation’s breakthrough at the 1998 Queensland election, the party has had a mixed record of maintaining parliamentary beachheads. By half way through its first term in the Queensland Parliament, the party had lost all its elected members. There were numerous disputes between Pauline Hanson, her close party confidants and the elected members. It was not helped the legal action that led to the parties de-registration. In the party’s first decade, there were 20 elected or appointed One Nation members of parliament. Seventeen split from the party, one was defeated, one disqualified and only one re-elected. After Hanson’s departure in the early 2000s, the party became largely irrelevant. That changed when Hanson returned to the fold in 2013. The party elected its first new members of parliament at the 2016 Senate election and has reached new levels of success over the last year. Sinc
Why Australia Doesn’t Have Novelty Candidates like Count Binface
Aug 13, 2026 · original
As I wait to hear the result of the UK’s Clacton by-election, I thought I should ponder the question of why Australia doesn’t have novelty candidates. The Clacton by-election was triggered by the resignation of Reform Party Leader Nigel Farage. The announcement came amid parliamentary scrutiny of Farage’s personal finances, and allegations concerning undeclared gifts and support. He is re-contesting the seat to, as he puts it, let the people rather than the establishment decide his fate. It has rather backfired on Farage as none of the ‘establishment’ parties are contesting. His major opponent has turned out to be serial novelty candidate Count Binface, in real life known as Jonathan David Harvey, an Oxford classics graduate and television comedy writer. The record field of 34 also includes Nick the Incredible Flying Brick, Howling Laud Hope and Baron Von Thunderclap, candidates for Brit
How GVTs Have Distorted Victorian Legislative Council Elections
Aug 11, 2026 · original
Summary: Change is coming to the Victorian Legislative Council’s electoral system for November’s state election. Victoria becomes the last jurisdiction to abolish group voting tickets, a system that allowed parties to control preference flows and distort election results. Voters will now control between-party preferences and the method of voting mimics the Senate system in use since 2016. The change favours parties that campaign for votes over parties that rely on preferences. Based on past results, the big losers will be minor parties whose election from low votes has been achieved by “preference harvesting” tactics, something that is impossible with group voting tickets abolished. The Victorian Labor government’s bill to abolish group voting tickets (GVTs) for Legislative Council elections was introduced on Tuesday 28 July, passed the lower house the next day with no opposition, and wi
The Record of Late-Term Succession Premiers
Jul 27, 2026 · original
Multi-term periods of party government in Australia have usually come to be associated with the leader that brought the party to office. We often call these periods of government eras. The less common type of era is multi-term governments with the same Prime Minister or Premier from first election to defeat. In this category we have the Fraser era (Fed 1975-83), the Howard era (Fed 1996-2007) and the Kennett era (Victoria 1992-1999). One term government don’t qualify for eras so there is no Steven Marshall era (SA 2018-22) or Campbell Newman era (QLD 2012-15). Some eras become associated with more than one leader, such as the Hawke-Keating era (Fed 1983-1996). Some of the long periods of post-war party government, such as Labor in NSW and Tasmania, or several times in Queensland, never attract the name of a single Premier. The Menzies era (1949-1972) is different simply because of how lo
2026 Victorian Election Pendulum
Jul 24, 2026 · original
( Update – Three days after this post was published, Jacinta Allan was replaced as Premier by Ben Carroll. The post has been left as originally published.) Victoria’s state election on 28 November will see voters pass judgment on Premier Jacinta Allen’s unpopular government and 12 years of Labor rule. Most recent Victorian opinion polls reveal a three-way split of support between Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. Several have reported One Nation with the highest primary vote. These are extra-ordinary polls in a state where two-party politics has traditionally been strongest and One Nation’s electoral support weakest. One Nation’s poll ratings are also remarkable given the party has no state leader, no announced state policies, one upper house member and just one lower house candidate. Were it not for other results this year, I would dismiss One Nation’s ratings as unlikely to hold unt
Correcting Confusion about One Nation’s past Legal Problems
Jul 22, 2026 · original
This post is written to stop me shouting at an interview about One Nation on Radio National’s Late Night Live tonight. The discussion got into a muddle about One Nation’s registration problems after the 1998 Queensland election. I thought I should set out the correct detail in my best non-lawyer way. First, there was never a finding by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), nor by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ), that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was wrongly registered. There was never a problem about One Nation’s registration by the Australian Electoral Commission at the time. Under then existing party registration laws, a party could be registered if it had a member of the relevant parliament, Federal for the AEC, state for the relevant state commissions. Any party registered under the authority of an MP did not require membership. If a party had no MP, a minimum number
The Impact on Senate Election Results of Abolishing GVTs – the Lessons for Victoria
Jul 20, 2026 · original
Over the next week I will publish several posts looking at the abolition of Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) in Victoria and the implications this has for the state’s Legislative Council election in November. Work I’ve undertaken in the past, about Senate elections both before and after the abolition of GVTs, produces clear conclusions. Abolishing GVTs will increase the importance of first preference votes and diminish the value of preference transfers. Abolishing GVTs advantages parties that campaign for votes and disadvantages those that rely on deals and transfers to be elected. Abolishing GVTs also ends the ability of parties to conspire and use GVTs to block the election of high polling parties. It also stops parties using GVTs to elect low-polling parties that few voters have heard of into important upper house balance of power seats. The key aim of abolishing GVTs is to end party contr
FED2026 Redistributions – South Australian Boundaries Finalised
Jul 19, 2026 · original
The South Australian redistribution of electoral boundaries has been finalised this morning. The Commission has abandoned a swap of suburbs between Kingston and Mayo, as well as the transfer of an area from Spence to O’Donoghue (formerly Grey). This means that Kingston and O’Donoghue retain their former boundaries without change. The Draft boundaries released in March produced only minor changes to the boundaries used at the last three federal elections. Those changes have now been reduced with the Spence to O’Donoghue change reversed and the proposed suburbs swap between Mayo and Kingston abandoned. South Australia was reduced from 11 to 10 House of Representatives seats by the 2017 redistribution. The current redistribution retains 10 seats and was triggered by the rule requiring boundaries to be re-drawn every seven years. The reason for periodic re-draws is to account for differing p

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