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1. The Saudis’ Trump-Kushner Investment Goes Bad
   Sep 24, 2026 · original
   Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Their global influence primarily comes from their oil money—and a greater ability than anyone to increase or decrease daily oil production at will, thereby leading OPEC and shaping energy prices—but the regional Middle East war ignited by the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran this spring put that in jeopardy. Today, Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and under threat in the Red Sea, and their biggest oil pipeline had to shut down after a drone attack. Their longtime security guarantor, the United States, is unable to stop it, and doesn’t seem especially interested in trying. This will likely get worse, and it’s hard to see how the Saudis find a way out. Since World War II, and especially since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has rested on a deal: U.S. military dominance provides relative stability, deterring and countering aggression, ens
2. Trump, Iran, Ukraine, the Midterms, and the Failure of Fascists’ Fantasy of Strength
   Sep 17, 2026 · original
   “Donald Trump has once again stepped up his threats to entirely wipe out Iran, but it somehow isn’t forcing Iran to make the deal he wants. The emptiness of the threats is embarrassing enough. But now, CBS News has published a series of extraordinary photographs of American bases and equipment abroad badly damaged by Iranian attacks. These pictures were leaked by anonymous U.S. service-members who did this because the truth about Trump’s war is being suppressed. As one put it: ‘This is major damage to our bases that hasn’t been communicated to the American public.’ Given the tight controls that Trump and Pete Hegseth have tried to impose on their war propaganda, this is even more humiliating for them. We talked to international relations expert Nicholas Grossman. We discuss all the ways that Trump’s Iran quagmire is deepening , why those photos tell a deeply unnerving story about our nat
3. Trump’s Iran Failure Deepens
   Sep 16, 2026 · original
   The United States and Iran escalated again, exchanging missile fire and hitting ships, while related fighting in Yemen and Saudi Arabia expanded. More than six months after Trump started the war, and nearly three months after he signed an agreement that would supposedly end it and normalize shipping, the U.S. and Iran are still fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. The damage keeps growing, and the Trump White House is both unable to fix it and unwilling to admit it. Thanks to Trump’s misguided war, the U.S. and its partners have lost freedom of navigation. The Persian Gulf—a strategic waterway that previously saw the free transit of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, and other valuable commodities—is now contested. As much as Trump might want to end the war, Iran’s power over Hormuz and ability to keep disrupting the global economy means he can’t. Oil prices are rising again, while gasoline an
4. Trump’s International Fights Hurt the U.S. Economy, Helping Democrats in the Midterms
   Aug 26, 2026 · original
   An iron rule of politics is that economic problems are bad for incumbents. A large, often decisive swath of voters will credit or blame the party in charge for economic conditions, and the worse it is, the more likely they are to “throw the bums out.” Donald Trump and the Republicans’ record of weak GDP growth , poor job creation , and higher inflation , especially in recent months, are among the reasons Democrats are favored to win at least one house of Congress in this November’s midterm elections. In that, Democrats are getting help from an unlikely source, who presumably isn’t doing it on purpose: Donald Trump, in particular his foreign policy. Trump has made multiple entirely voluntary choices leading in foreseeable and foreseen ways to economic damage to the United States, including damage to states with close races that could decide control of the Senate. Read the full article for
5. Live with Prof Nicholas Grossman
   Aug 11, 2026 · original
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6. Trump's Renewed Bombing Made Iran Stronger
   Aug 7, 2026 · original
   Iran and Oman are reportedly finalizing a deal to control the Strait of Hormuz, charging ships fees for passage , and potentially blocking ships from “hostile countries.” Trump resumed bombing in early July to prevent Iran from doing just that, and President Donald Trump has flitted between claiming the United States will control Hormuz and charge tolls , pretending the strait is already open and threatening to “hit very hard” if Iran doesn’t fully open it soon. Yet Trump and other top U.S. officials, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent , are touting the Iran-Oman talks as diplomatic progress, indicating they’re going to accept a deal on Iran’s terms. This would arguably be America’s most blatant loss in war ever, especially for a war the U.S. started. In February, before Trump started the war, Hormuz was open, treated as an international waterway,
7. Insults for the Press and Uranium for the Saudis
   Jul 28, 2026 · original
   The White House Correspondents Dinner celebrating an avowed enemy of the press, the Iran war and Trump’s pattern of threats then surrender, the Saudi nuclear deal—awful strategy, and sure looks corrupt—the possibility of a post-Trump reconstruction and more — I joined for a wide-ranging current events conversation on To the Contrary. Listen for free here: To the Contrary Does Trump Think the AI Slop Makes Him Look... Tough? Let’s catch up a bit… Listen now 2 months ago · 14 likes · Charlie Sykes
8. Would procedural hardball really insulate the Democratic Party against a left-wing insurgency, while leaving them poised to win general elections? w/ Nicholas Grossman
   Jul 10, 2026 · original
   Get more from Arc Digital in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android
9. Trump's Lies Are an Obstacle to US-Iran Peace
   Jul 10, 2026 · original
   The U.S. and Iran are shooting again , the second (and larger) flare up since they signed a Memorandum of Understanding in June. The main point of contention is the Strait of Hormuz , a vital waterway for international trade that Iran blocked in response to the initial U.S.-Israel attack in February. The MOU reflects U.S. desperation to get ships flowing again, giving Iran economic benefits in exchange for Iran merely promising to “make arrangements … for the safe passage of commercial vessels,” without specifying what those arrangements are. Iran has consistently asserted it will control Hormuz and charge fees for passage , while the U.S., especially President Donald Trump, has been acting as if the strait is totally open and on a fast track back to prewar normal. Except it clearly isn’t. More ships went through after the MOU, but even at peak it was fewer than half the daily prewar ave
10. Iran War Next Phase: The Fight for Hormuz
    Jun 30, 2026 · original
    Over the weekend, less than two weeks after Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, the countries exchanged multiple attacks . Iran fired at a ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. shot at Iranian missile and drone sites, then both sides launched more strikes while claiming retaliation for the other violating the ceasefire . A meeting between the two countries was called off , though the White House now says there will be new meetings in Qatar . This isn’t a return to full-scale war, but it isn’t peace either. It is a new phase in the conflict: the fight to control Hormuz. The United States already lost the fight Trump started; it failed to achieve his declared goal of the Iranian regime’s unconditional surrender, or, barring that, Tehran’s acceptance of stringent nuclear restrictions. Now the conflict is over whether Iran controls Hormu
11. Can't Make Peace Without the Combatants
    Jun 23, 2026 · original
    Only a few days after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again . But it wasn’t American forces that drew the sharp response from Tehran. Instead, the Iranians said Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon meant America violated the deal. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are party to the MOU, but the “immediate and permanent termination” of their conflict in Lebanon is listed as a condition in the document’s first article. Professional diplomats would have insisted on more specificity about what that language meant. It’s unlikely seasoned American negotiators would have agreed without getting Israeli buy-in first, but the Trump regime disdains that sort of expertise. This disregard for detail fits President Donald Trump’s consistent approach to conflict diplomacy: seek the minimum that can be called a “pe
12. The U.S.-Iran Deal is Basically American Surrender
    Jun 17, 2026 · original
    The United States and Iran say they reached a “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) to end the current war and work towards a more comprehensive agreement, but hesitated to release the language to the public. The U.S. also reportedly refused to show the text to the Israeli government , America’s partner in launching the war. Logical inference says that’s because the MOU favors Iran, the Trump White House knows it, and they don’t want to hear criticism, including from more hawkish Republicans. One U.S. official tried preemptively dismissing the text, telling CNN White House correspondent Alayna Treene that “p eople shouldn’t read too much into the language of the MOU” because “what’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other.” But the Iranians almost certainly think the written specifics of the MOU they spent weeks hammering out matter more than t
13. Trump Agrees to Negotiate on Iran's Terms
    Jun 16, 2026 · original
    President Donald Trump announced an imminent agreement to end the Iran war, and while he’s said things like that before, Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators also say there’s a deal, so this time it’s real. The U.S. and Iran are expected to sign something on Friday. But it’s reportedly a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MOU) that agrees in principle to end hostilities and continue discussing broader issues, not any sort of comprehensive deal. Essentially, American and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement to work towards negotiating an agreement. The language isn’t publicly available yet, but the core reported provision is Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage at the end of the Persian Gulf by which Iran has blocked nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply—and ending the U.S. blockade on Iran, as well as Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon. We’ll have to se
14. After a Break From the News
    Jun 15, 2026 · original
    Without political news and social media, I was less angry. I wouldn’t say at peace or unconcerned about the state of the world, but at least less actively pissed off. It didn’t hit me until about two weeks into my now-annual news break, when another driver said something obnoxious at a red light. I was thinking about it a few minutes later, annoyed, when I realized that I’ve been feeling angry nearly all the time about much more important things. The Information Age deluge of updates, alerts, notifications, and commentary throws everything in your face. Shutting all that out—never checking, not once, for enough days to lose track of events—takes effort, especially at first to break the habit. But each year I’m glad I did. No breaking news, no doomscrolling, no awareness of what some pundit, politician, or big social media account said. No Trump. Or at least a lot less. It takes a few day
15. It's All so Stupid and Awful
    May 26, 2026 · original
    I usually take a news and social media break around this time of year, after the spring semester ends. It’s good for me to focus on other things, treat current events as not my problem, and quiet the part of my brain that’s constantly formulating things to write about war and politics. I find that impossible while following the news or interacting online. The break typically goes for about two weeks, and I come back feeling mentally healthier, more ready to engage the mostly-awful news again. Then I write about it ( here’s what I wrote about last year’s ). This year I worried I couldn’t. There are multiple important things going on, but in particular the Iran war is a big deal for me, personally and professionally, and I’ve followed developments closely. It’s also very frustrating, because the war was so unnecessary, it’s causing so much damage, and the Trump regime’s strategy is terribl
16. America's Trump-Accelerated Decline Doesn't Mean China's Taking Over
    May 19, 2026 · original
    President Donald Trump visited China, prompting thoughts of a global transition of power. The trip comes amidst America’s ongoing hegemonic suicide, as Trump is creating chaos at home, alienating allies abroad , damaging domestic and international institutions, egregiously violating U.S. and international law , breaking the U.S.-led system of open trade, and trashing U.S. credibility in ways that will be difficult, perhaps impossible to reverse. Trump is throwing away many of the things that made America the world’s premier power, and as the United States declines, China has the most to gain. The biggest factor is Trump’s horribly misguided Iran war , an unnecessary act of aggression that casts today’s America as more akin to Putin’s Russia than to Eisenhower, Reagan, or Obama’s United States. In prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz —through which over 100 ships a day carrying oi
17. Proof the New York Times is Biased in Trump's Favor
    May 14, 2026 · original
    President Donald Trump is on an official U.S. state visit to China, and he brought American business leaders in pursuit of deals. One is Trump’s biggest campaign donor Elon Musk, which is very corrupt. Another is Eric Trump, who runs the Trump Organization, a private business owned entirely by Donald Trump and run by his family members. That’s even more corrupt. Here is how the New York Times covered it : Could raise questions? Potential blurred lines? The lines aren’t blurred. There’s no line at all. The president has a massive financial conflict of interest, representing the United States abroad while also seeking personal business deals, trying to generate money that goes into his own pocket. Pretending that his son running the business insulates President Trump from this conflict of interest is absurd. And bringing Eric on an official state visit to China leaves no ambiguity. But the
18. Why Trump and Stock Markets Are Wrong About the Iran War
    May 13, 2026 · original
    Iran responded on Sunday to President Donald Trump ’s latest peace proposal with demands of its own. The United States asked Iran to agree in principle to forfeit its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while it negotiates the details. Iran rejected that, asking the U.S. to pay war reparations and acknowledge Iran’s sovereignty over Hormuz, by which Iran is blocking around 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply. With both countries acting like they have the upper hand, a war-ending deal is impossible. Trump has insisted Iran has been “defeated militarily” and reassured that “as soon as the war is over, which will not be too long, you’re going to see oil prices drop.” Wall Street has appeared similarly confident. For example, JP Morgan’s latest guidance said, by June, oil shortages will “force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another … following a clear and cre
19. Winning Power in Competitive Authoritarianism
    May 11, 2026 · original
    Caricature drawing of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts by Steve Petteway, via Wikimedia Commons America’s democratic backsliding deepened as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act (VRA) in Louisiana v. Callais . The VRA passed Constitutional muster many times, and Congress renewed it in 2006 by large supermajorities, but the John Roberts-led Supreme Court undid it because they personally dislike the outcome, which isn’t their job. Meanwhile, the Virginia state supreme court blocked an amendment to the state constitution that passed by popular referendum, which isn’t really their job, and did so on a technicality that they didn’t apply to the previous Virginia constitutional amendment addressing redistricting. Both decisions boost Republicans’ political power and weaken Democrats’. The judges wrote up some lawyerly bullshit as rationalization, of course, but I refuse to in
20. What Trump Broke With the Iran War He Cannot Fix
    Apr 29, 2026 · original
    There’s a persistent myth that President Donald Trump knows what he’s doing. That his actions are strategic, rather than impulsive. That he’s “playing 4D chess” — anticipating, manipulating and generally outthinking opponents. That anything he breaks he can put back together — on terms more favorable to himself — or will keep operating regardless. So don’t worry. This still-prevalent view has reached its limit with the Iran war , even if many haven’t realized it yet. Here are three reality checks: Reality check 1: Economic disruption is already locked in and growing daily. A good amount of the media coverage has treated the Iran war as another bit of Trump-caused chaos that he can wind down whenever he wants , just as his tariff blitz unsettled markets but things mostly kept functioning regardless. Stock markets are acting that way, too, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all at or near re

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